New projections suggest that Dublin renters could be paying up to 75% more within the next 14 years if nothing changes.
Dublin’s rental crisis shows no real sign of letting up, and fresh projections suggest things could get a lot worse before they get better. If current trends continue, average rents in the capital could be 50 to 75 percent higher by 2040, putting everyday living costs far beyond what most workers can realistically afford.
While it is impossible to say with complete accuracy how much average rent prices will cost in 14 years, if we follow the hiking costs of Dublin rents today and calculate the annual increase year after year, the results are anything but hopeful.
What people could be paying for rent in 2040 – shocking figures if trends continue
Based on conservative growth projections, a one-bedroom apartment in Dublin could cost around €3,300 per month by 2040, up from roughly €1,950 today. A two-bedroom apartment could rise to approximately €4,200 per month, while the overall average rent across the city could sit at around €3,700 per month. These figures might sound extreme, but it is hard to argue with trends.
Using long-term rental growth trends from the past decade, Dublin’s rental market continues to move in one direction only – up. Even with rent pressure zones and government efforts to slow increases, new rents entering the market remain significantly higher than older ones, gradually pulling averages upwards.
Housing costing upwards of €3,000 per month will no longer be considered luxury options, but rather the standard cost of living in Dublin. For many renters, this huge monthly outgoing will dwarf all other living costs.
Why rents are expected to rise so sharply – unmet housing needs, population increase, and more
According to warnings from the Department of Finance, Ireland’s housing shortage is expected to persist until at least 2040. Each year, around 60,000 new homes are needed to keep pace with demand, a target that has not yet been met.
Also, inevitably Dublin’s population will have increased significantly by 2040. It’s projected to grow by nearly 300,000 people by then. As such, more people competing for housing is going to drive costs up further.
Construction costs are also rising due to inflation, labour shortages, and material prices. For new apartment developments to be financially viable, landlords must charge higher starting rents, which gradually reset market expectations across the city.
The reality for the typical Dublin worker in 2040 – 80% of a monthly wage consumed by rent
If a current average Dublin salary of €46,000 grows at a standard annual rate of 3.5%, it would reach approximately €74,500 by 2040. After tax and other rates, that equates to a monthly take-home pay of around €4,150.
Against a projected one-bedroom rent of €3,300 per month, that leaves just €850 for all other expenses, including food, transport, and monthly bills. Thus, rent will consume the majority of a person’s take-home funds.
The likely outcome is the end of the single renter in Dublin. Living alone on an average salary would become unrealistic. Couples may manage, with a two-income household spending roughly half their income on rent, while long-term house sharing with three or four other adults could become the norm well into people’s 30s and 40s. All things to consider when weighing up the pros and cons of living in Dublin.
